To determine the optimal stop loss (SL) and take profit (TP) levels for your leveraged crypto trades, follow this structured approach: ### Key Variables: - **Current Setup**: TP = SL = 20% price movement. - **Leverage Impact**: Profit/Loss = Leverage × Price Movement (%). - **Historical Data**: 90 wins, 51 losses (63.83% win rate). ### Formula for Expected Value (EV): \[ \text{EV} = (\text{Win Rate} \times \text{TP}) - (\text{Loss Rate} \times \text{SL}) \] Goal: Maximize EV by optimizing TP and SL. ### Steps to Optimize: 1. **Model Win Rate Dependency**: - If historical price data is available, calculate how often price movements would hit different TP/SL thresholds. - Assume a stochastic model (e.g., Brownian motion with drift) to estimate win probabilities for varying TP/SL. 2. **Kelly Criterion for Risk-Reward Ratio**: - Optimal risk-reward ratio \( b = \frac{\text{TP}}{\text{SL}} \) balances growth: \[ b > \frac{1 - \text{Win Rate}}{\text{Win Rate}} \approx 0.566 \quad (\text{for your 63.83% win rate}). \] - Example: If \( \text{SL} = 15\% \), set \( \text{TP} > 8.5\% \) (but backtest to validate win rate changes). 3. **Backtesting**: - Adjust TP/SL levels in historical data to see how many trades would have hit new thresholds. - Compute EV for each combination to find the maximum. ### Practical Recommendation: - **Experiment with Ratios**: Start with a risk-reward ratio > 0.566 (e.g., TP:SL = 1.5:1) and adjust based on observed performance. - **Conservative Adjustment**: Gradually widen TP and tighten SL while monitoring the win rate to ensure it stays profitable. ### Example Calculation: If you set \( \text{TP} = 30\% \) and \( \text{SL} = 15\% \), and assume the win rate drops to 50%: \[ \text{EV} = (0.5 \times 0.3) - (0.5 \times 0.15) = 0.075 \ (\text{7.5% per trade}), \] which is higher than your current 5.53%. ### Final Answer: The **optimal stop loss and take profit** depend on how adjusting these levels affects your win rate. Based on your current 63.83% win rate at a 1:1 ratio, consider testing a **risk-reward ratio of 2:1** (e.g., TP = 24%, SL = 12%) to maximize expected value. Use backtesting or incremental adjustments to refine further. **Formula for Optimization**: \[ \boxed{\text{Optimal TP/SL} = \arg\max_{TP, SL} \left[ (\text{Win Rate} \times TP) - ((1 - \text{Win Rate}) \times SL) \right]} \] **Action Steps**: 1. Backtest historical trades with varying TP/SL. 2. Use the Kelly Criterion to guide risk-reward ratios. 3. Gradually adjust levels while monitoring performance.