#!/usr/bin/python3

##################### Edit your expectations below ################

# Effectivity against symptomatic disease of your first vaccination option:
ve_1 = 0.66 # Janssen (global average)

# Effectivity against symptomatic disease of your second vaccination option:
ve_2 = 0.95  # BioNTech or Moderna 

# Weeks that you expect to wait longer when opting for the second vaccination option:
vaccination_option_2_delay = 12 # weeks


# Your expectation about what will be the "7-days incidence per 100,000" in your population
# in the weeks following the time when my first vaccination option would become effective:

#               April            May            June                 July                August              September         October

# assuming a moderate "3rd wave":
# incidences = [ 65, 70, 75,  80,  85,  90,  95, 100,  95,  80,  70,  60,  50,  40,  35,  30,  25,  20,  20,  15,  15,  10,  10 ] 

# assuming a constant incidence over the next 52 weeks:
incidences = [ 65 for _ in range(52) ]

# assuming three more "waves" going up to 200 and then down to 65 during every 3 months for a year:
#incidences = [ 65 + i * (200-65)/8 for i in range(8) ] + [ 65 + (8-i) * (200-65)/8 for i in range(8) ] \
#           + [ 65 + i * (200-65)/8 for i in range(8) ] + [ 65 + (8-i) * (200-65)/8 for i in range(8) ] \
#           + [ 65 + i * (200-65)/8 for i in range(8) ] + [ 65 + (8-i) * (200-65)/8 for i in range(8) ]

#################### Edit your expectations above ################

# now let's compute your chances of not getting infected during the
# entire time you specified expected incidences for in above array

p_noninfected_1 = 1.00 # for both vaccines we assume you are not infected at
p_noninfected_2 = 1.00 # the time of your first chance to be vaccinated effectively

for week in range(len(incidences)): # iterate over as many weeks as we have incidence estimates for

        # update the chance to stay not infected for the first vaccination option:
        p_noninfected_1 *= 1 - ((1.00 - ve_1) * incidences[week]/100000)

        # update the chance to stay not infected for the second vaccination option:
        if week >= vaccination_option_2_delay:
                p_noninfected_2 *= 1 - ((1.00 - ve_2) * incidences[week]/100000)
        else:
                # no protection by the second vaccine option during vaccination_option_2_delay
                p_noninfected_2 *= 1 - (                incidences[week]/100000)


print(f"Your chance to stay not infected for the {len(incidences)} weeks following effectiveness of your first vaccination option is...")

print(f"{p_noninfected_1 * 100} % when taking the first vaccination option")
print(f"{p_noninfected_2 * 100} % when taking the second vaccination option")